Probation: Crime and P.o Officer Essay

Probation is the most common form of criminal sentencing in the United States. Probation is define as a court – ordered- deposition alternative in which an offender is placed under the control, supervision and care By a P.O officer. Do I think it’s fair for a defendant to plead guilty and take probation to avoid imprisonment? I think it depends on the seriousness of the crime and what the charges are. A person can’t plead guilty of a crime unless it is offered by a prosecutor, and there is usually a reason why it is offered. If one is really innocent of a crime I don’t see the reason why they would agree to plead guilty and take probation. Pleading guilty and taking probation is a good and bad idea at the same time because what if a person who is being convicted of a crime is really innocent, but yet has no choice but to plead guilty just so they can skip the incarceration and lessen their sentence. I think it’s unfair only when coming to someone who in fact did do the crime but yet was given the chance of pleading guilty and taking probation to avoid prison sentence. I think it is unfair to the victim’s family because for example a man kills a mother and child but yet he was given the chance to plead guilty just so he can have a lesser time, it is unfair to the victim’s family because sweet justice did not prevail. I think that probation is a win or lose situation because when a person violate their probation they can be sent to jail to serve the rest of their time. When one is granted probation there are many rules that they have to follow one of these rules is to not commit any crime while they are on probation, if this rule is not satisfied by the offender they will be sent to jail and also be charge for the newer offense which they will get additional years. The various factors that should be consider when granting probation is the offender criminal history. A person with no criminal history has a way better chance of been given the chance to plead guilty and take probation than someone who has a far worst criminal history. The judge also considers the nature of the current offense. For example a person convicted of chopping a person feet off is less likely to obtain probation than a person who was driving while intoxicated and no accident was caused. Another thing to be considered is whether probation is particular in that particular case, and whether the service that the offender requires will be acquired while incarcerated or under probation and will they be harm to the community. There are many crimes in New York City where probation is given like substance abuse; Arson, robbery, harassment, criminal mischief, and many more crimes which are considered misdemeanor. I think that imprisonment should be considered for all of these except substance abused only when it is being abused by the offender instead of selling the drug itself. If the offender sells the drug I think he falls under the category of imprisonment. All these offenses can lead to a more serious crime. People who commit these crimes should spend some months behind bars so they can learn a valued lesson instead of getting a slap on the risk by being able to plead guilty and be given probation. Everyone deserve a chance to change but only if they are innocent or a juvenile, for adults I think they should not be given probation or to plead guilty to crimes that they did actually commit.

My Expectations for English This Year Essay

I am very happy to be taking English this year. I have strengths I wish to expand on and weaknesses to improve. I have two main goals for this class this year. I hope with the help of my teacher and classmates I can make the most of this class. I am interested in English in many areas. For beginners, I would like to read novels. In the past, I would choose to read short, young adult books. Now I believe I am ready to read harder, more advanced books. I used to dread writing assignments, but I have come to realize writing is part of life. I just have to do it. Overall I enjoy English class. I have more weaknesses than strengths when it comes to English. My strengths are reading well, brainstorming ideas for writing assignments, and turning homework in on time. I can read well, but the trouble comes when I need to understand what I read. When it comes to writing, I have trouble expressing the words in a unique way. Finally, my grammar could use improvement in areas such as spelling and punctuation. After much consideration, I have come up with two goals that I hope to achieve from this class. The first one is to become a better, more advanced writer. I choose this goal because I feel communication is the key to life. In order to communicate well, I need to be able to write and read. That brings me to my second goal: to be able to get the most out of what I read. I want to be able to understand what I read. Accomplishing these goals will help me prepare for college. I am looking forward to writing a lot of stories, essays, and journal entries this year. I also am excited about reading novels to expand my reading level. I hope to achieve my goals. In doing all this and with practice, I hope to be well prepared for college.

Citizenship in Thailand Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Citizenship in Thailand - Essay Example The generators of the nation-states tried to typify the people so that it would be easier for them to be controlled through the standardization of citizenship. However, individual rights as well as the formal correspondence of citizens have given rise to new-fangled limitations and borders, whereby, international disparities such as class, gender, ethnicity, and faction have been caused to be invisible by the national discourse fore the reason that it stressed on the completeness and unity, nevertheless, have failed to identify the prohibitions or disparities which people have experienced so far2. This paper talks about the background notions and discourse that associates to nationality as well as citizenship with meticulous reference to Thailand. With regards to the private laws and human rights and how it relates to the international law provisions as well as notions about nationality are a subject of concern here. In views of Huddleston and Kerr, in its simplest interpretation, citizenship refers to the stand of being a citizen or member of a particular community or state3. In such a sense, citizenship hinges upon certain rights and responsibilities which are described in the law. The rights could be the right to vote, the liability of paying tax, etc. Citizenship is sometimes construed as nationality which is interpreted when an individual mentions about applying or acquiring citizenship. The Thai constitution has served the segregation of the rules of play in the politics of Thailand. The sole rationale of subsequent constitutions as well as amendments has always been to provide and sustain the authority and benefit of whichever military or political faction occurred to be overriding enough at the time of proliferation4. Without appropriate citizenship, an individual in Thailand is efficaciously a non-person who is unable to vote, purchase land, look for legal vocation, and tour between regions. Moreover, they are denied admittance to secondary education and liberated government health care. The process of acquirement of Thai citizenship is quite an intricate process due to the snag of bureaucracy as well as substantial corruption. To acquire Thai citizenship, it is mandatory for an individual to prove that both he and one his blood parents were born in Thailand. More to it, a child in need of proving that one of his parents were born in Thailand, is initially supposed to prove that one of his grandparents was born in Thailand, and so on5 (Newsletter, 2008). 2.1 Governance Issues In terms of the governance concept, Thailand lacks the quintessential type. The judicial processes which are the foundation of facilitating the common citizen

Health Care Reform Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 2

Health Care Reform - Assignment Example The reform is better for tens of millions of uninsured Americans will get access to an affordable, quality health insurance in the health market. On the other hand, in order to get the money to assist insure tens of millions, new taxes on higher earners are introduced. The taxes affect employer and an individual mandate. Also, from the reform, many uninsured Americans can access free or low cost health insurance by the use of their State’s Health Insurance Marketplace. In contrast, the individual mandate suggests that one must get health coverage and pay a fee or exemption if they can afford (Boucher, 2010). The reform is essential for Medicaid is extended up to 15.9 million people who are 138% below the line of poverty (Haugen, 2008). Conversely, not all States expand Medicaid since Medicaid is expanded by the use of the Federal State Funding. Thus, such regulations leave approximately 5.7 million of the people without any coverage options. The reform is also necessary for CHIP is extended in order to cover about 9 million children. On the other hand, the CHIP uses State Funding and Federal rules in executing their services. In this case, the Obama Health reform cannot drop individuals from the coverage when you are sick or make an honest mistake on your application. The reform does not deny coverage for being sick or being charged expensively (Haugen, 2008). The fact that the reform does not consider the gender is also a point of credit for the Obamacare. For example, a sick individual cannot be charged more for being a woman. In such cases, insurance companies must cover the sick people, thus increasing the cost of an individual’s insurance (Field et al., 1993). In general, Obama reform is important for small businesses are capable of getting tax credits of up to 50% of the employee’s cost of insurance (Forman, 2010). On the other hand, the consent of the employer

Geography Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Geography - Essay Example Some of the most notable rivers in Tennessee include the Cumberland and the Mississippi. Geographically, the whole area is divided into three major parts namely East Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, and West Tennessee. Natural resources are rich in Tennessee. From coal to gas to fruits and vegetables to rich soil to good climate, these resources offer immense merits to the public. There is a large amount of coal and other minerals which are needed for manufacturing purposes. The soil is so fertile that all kinds of fruits and vegetables can be grown here. Water is one of the most important natural resources. There is no water shortage in Tennessee due to huge water systems. These natural resources play a huge role in supporting the economy of the state. The climate is also very friendly because it is not unpredictable and the soil helps to support both crops and grazing. The nature of soil varies from region to region in

IT Outsourcing Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

IT Outsourcing - Essay Example Information technology processes are primary among those outsourced as they call for expertise and can dramatically boost the brand image of a company. Since outsourcing has long been taken on as a cost-cutting strategy, companies will want to identify services that can be hired out to experts to perform them. Moreover, outsourcing enables companies to achieve flexibility as they can take advantage of time differences as the companies hired out are usually overseas. Besides that, where a company is facing great demand during peak seasons, they can meet this demand by hiring out manufacturing processes to overseas companies with the expertise. This is quite beneficial to a company as it gives them an edge over their competitors in terms of surprise availability and ability to meet consumers’ requirements consistently (Blokdijk, 2008). With respect to IT, service value chain can be achieved by for instance where companies approach a company to provide storage through cloud compu ters and provide applications that streamline operations using customized software. Most sought after is web hosting services, there are risks attached to this that will require deep consideration and analysis. These are related to the vendors, such that their being in the driving seat allows them to take control of operations. This could result in conflict of interests, a company may lose its identity while associating with certain vendors, managing and directing vendors may prove challenging and when the outsourcing company decides to end the partnership with a vendor, critical knowledge goes with the vendors which may prove risky and expensive as they will be vulnerable to competition (Kroenke, 2012). Hence, it is crucial that companies establish fundamental principles when making a contract with vendors or suppliers of IT services. This ensures there is a meeting of minds allowing a cohesive and mutually beneficial relationship to exist. However, this should not be done in a dic tatorial manner as it may build reluctance from the vendor. The buyer should notify the vendor what the expectations are so that the vendor understands the obligations faced by the company. Prior to this, a company seeking to outsource IT services should do a thorough background check on potential vendors or suppliers to make certain they are reliable and competent to perform the services. This prevents a situation where quality of service from the vendor is below par. An outsourcing company should also be careful not to entirely expose its intellectual capital, in form of skills and knowledge, to the vendors as this may prove damaging if accessed by the competition (Blokdijk, 2008). From the mini-case study, it is understandable why management would want to outsource IT services seeing as it should support 5,000 students, excluding staff and they have an accommodating budget. Nevertheless, having an extra 15 employees, over and above the 30 employees, all dedicated to the same busi ness function may prove expensive and redundant. The university needs to rationalize the outsourced services to ensure they maximize capital utilization, where capital in this case refers to existing employees. In addition, the associated costs of outsourcing services should be supported by quantifiable benefits accrued from the services. It would be sensible to outsource IT s

The recuitment process from an employers perspective Essay

The recuitment process from an employers perspective - Essay Example A well-written resume presents the impression that the candidate is organized and has good communication skills -which is the backbone of all organizations today. It is important to remember that as an employee you are selling yourself to the employer and his organization. An employee must be thought in terms of a brand or a product that must stress his benefits and explain why the organization should hire him. Even before organizations open up the employee’s CV, they have a look at the cover letter which precedes the CV. The purpose of a CV is to create interest in the employer to contact the candidate for an interview whereas the cover letter creates interest in the employer to read the candidate’s CV (Bovee et al., 2008). It is a common mistake to address the employer properly by using a gender-based phrase ‘Dear Sir’ (Bovee et al., 2008). Using phrases such as ‘Dear HR manager’ denote professionalism and anti-discriminatory behavior in toda y’s corporate world (Bovee et al., 2008). Likewise, it is common to set the objective of a cover letter as far too general. It ought to be specific to the particular industry that the candidate is applying in which demonstrates his/her skills of the industry’s processes or procedures. Yet another important issue is that of the use of a specific salary (e.g. $2,000) rather than a broad range (Hinds, 2005). Furthermore, it is crucial to recognize the fact that employers do not have a lot of time to read documents coming from a large pool of applicants. Hence, it is a malpractice to write a lengthy cover letter (that exceeding two pages). Ideally, the most effective cover letters span only a page (Brewer, 2010). Using internet jargon and not properly checking the cover letter for spelling and grammar is another common oversight (Bovee et al., 2008). This creates the impression of a rather slack personality of the applicant to the organization. As far as the resume is conc erned, it is crucial that it displays a â€Å"you-attitude† (Bovee et al., 2008). This is extremely important in all persuasive messages including the CV. It is useful to research into the background of the company and its operations because employers are constantly looking on how the employee can relate himself/herself to the company (Bovee et al., 2008). CVs must not be too compelling; the language that is used must not depict that the candidate is expecting immediate response of being accepted or rejected by the company. This expectation is erroneous; a good CV does not result in being accepted. It is the â€Å"gateway† to being accepted (Bovee et al., 2008). Furthermore, candidates often spend several hours detailing their experiences and interests believing that their CV will be read thoroughly. However, the truth is that most CV’s are read by the computer and screened on the basis of certain keywords; it is important to embody those â€Å"keywords†. Also, the most important issue that organizations report is the direct use of the word â€Å"I†; CVs must always be presented in terms of what is known as the silent â€Å"I† (Curtis & Simons, 2004). There are several formats for a CV at the disposal of the candidate; a chronological, functional or combination format (Appendix 1 and 2). The chronological format is most preferred by employers as it makes it easier for the employer to extract information. It is discovered that, all too often, candidates often fail to produce effective CVs due to the

Is Drug Addiction a Disease of the Brain Research Paper

Is Drug Addiction a Disease of the Brain - Research Paper Example As for drugs like marijuana and heroin, their molecules have a similar structure to neurotransmitters, and thus they activate nerve cells in order to form even harmful synaptic connections as well as send abnormal messages. Cocaine and methamphetamine, on the other hand, would cause the overproduction of neutransmitters like dopamine, which eventually â€Å"shuts off† synaptic communication or the signaling between neurons and alters the brain’s reward system (â€Å"Drug Facts,† 2011). As the addiction continues, it is getting harder and harder to bring the dopamine level to normal in order to produce the same rewarding or satisfying feeling, thus more and more amount of drugs is needed to achieve this. Another effect of drug addiction on the brain is altering glutamate, which is actually associated with the brain’s reward system and cognitive function. Long term abuse, therefore, may impair the glutamate and consequently affect judgment, learning, memory, behavior control, and decision-making activities of the drug addict (â€Å"Drug Facts,† 2011). ... tion is not a brain disease because of two reasons: First, â€Å"the changes in the brain which [those who are on the opposite side of the issue] show us are not abnormal at all,† and second, â€Å"there is no evidence that the behavior of addicts is compulsive [or involuntary† (â€Å"Addiction is NOT,† 2012). For the first reason, those who believe that drug addiction is a disease often point out to brain images of neuroadaptations and a totally different prefrontal cortex that both result from a repetitive intake of drugs. According to authors of Clean Slate, this is not abnormal at all because any human being can alter the synaptic pathways of his brain simply through constant practice, and the authors point out Begley and Jeffrey Schwartz, who both authored The Mind and The Brain. Both authors pointed out in their book that the scanned images of both experienced and inexperienced taxi drivers in London are not the same in terms of the prefrontal cortex, but t his does not necessarily mean that drivers who do not know much of the city would have a mental disease. The point is that â€Å"these brain changes don’t need to be brought on by exposure to chemicals,† and since there is no physiologic malfunction and that there are no pathologically affected parts, then the author of Clean Slate contends that drug addiction is not a disease (â€Å"Addiction is NOT,† 2012). In fact, the aforementioned claim is rather supported by Satel and Lilienfeld (2007), who state, â€Å"In the days between binges, cocaine addicts make many [normal everyday] decisions that have nothing to do with drug-seeking.† However, although it makes perfect logical sense that drug addicts do not act like drug addicts all the time, it is basically the same thing with AIDS patients since these people can

Two Career Versus Single Career Families Essay Example for Free

Two Career Versus Single Career Families Essay Families with two working parents are more common today than in years past.   The percentage of stay at home parents has been dwindling since WWII when women started entering the job force at a rapid rate.   While there are plenty of working families, many families still have a stay at home parent, especially with very young children in the home.   The differences between two career and single career families can be noticed in their economical situation, in their involvement with their children, and in their recreational activities.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The financial situations of families with two working parents and families with one working parent vary.   Two career households typically bring in more revenue.   They also spend less on utilities on average because there are less household members in the family during the day.   Two career families often have daycare expenses, however, but these dwindle as children age and attend school. Depending on the career of the breadwinner, single career families typically make less money on average than families with two working parents.   Utilities and food costs could run a bit higher because more people are in the home more often than families where both parents work.   A bonus to having a stay at home parent is that there are relatively little or no costs associated with day care expenses. Overall, a family with two working parents will have a better financial situation than a single career family.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Another difference between a two career family and a one career family is the amount of and degree of involvement with the children.   Two career families often have a difficult time finding opportunities to volunteer in schools or take their children special places during the week due to their work schedules.   They are restricted by their employers on the amount of time that they can take off of work as well, so they may have to rely on babysitters or family members to do things such as take the children to scheduled appointments such as the doctor or dentist. Single career families, on the other hand, rarely have these issues.   A stay at home parent has more time and opportunity to do things like volunteer in the community or join groups where they have interaction with other parents and children.   If school age children are in the home, a stay at home parent can volunteer in the school, get the children from school if necessary and even do nice things like take them out to lunch once in awhile.   A stay at home parent also does not need to find alternate care for doctor and dentist appointments.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Another noticeable difference between two career families and single career families is the type of recreation that they engage in.   Often, when both parents work during the day, they fill their evenings catching up on their children’s activities and lives in between cooking dinner and catching up on household chores.   They often restrict their children’s’ extracurricular activities because there simply is not enough time to do everything.   Two career families can save up for family vacations when both parents can take time off. Single career families seem to have more children involved in more activities.   These families don’t restrict activities as much because there is someone at home during the day taking care of the chores; there is no catch up in the evening, so it is easier for everyone to do more things.   Single career families often do not take vacation because they cannot afford it and their schedules are full already with all of the extracurricular activities that the children are involved in.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   There are advantages to both two career and single career families.   Two career families generally have more revenue and can save up for vacation time, but miss out on other valuable time with their children.   Single career homes have someone at home taking care of all of the necessary chores, so the family can enjoy more activities, but on average, they have less revenue to do things like take long vacations.   Either way, a family is a family, and the most important thing they can share is love.

Managing Finances for a Better Future Essay Example for Free

Managing Finances for a Better Future Essay In American society, we are encouraged to save money for a better future. However, in my life I have encountered problems with managing my personal finances. In the past, I spent my money irresponsibly. Despite making a decent salary, it was a challenge trying to maintain my financial responsibilities and not something I was very concerned about. I felt as though I was living paycheck to paycheck, when the reality was I simply did a poor job of managing my funds. Now that I have grown up and have a son, my expenses have increased tremendously. Although he is my biggest joy, having to take care of him has worsened my inability to manage and save money properly. When I should be saving money for his college education, instead I spent $500 on toys for Christmas. Therefore, learning how to effectively manage my finances is vitally important in order to secure a healthy and rewarding future for myself and my son. Information to Resolve My Daily Problem As I consider how to resolve my constant problem of saving money, I have identified these information sources as possible resources: 1.  I would use my 401(k) investment catalog to discover more information about how to invest money into different stocks and bonds. 2. I would contact Diana Marrero-Pinto, Director of Housing at the Lorain County Community Action Agency, Inc. to register for the Budgeting Bootcamp seminar. 3. I would search the Internet for reliable resources on how to save money in a bad economy. I would look for such resources in the following manner. I would contact my 401(k) representative to schedule a meeting to discuss my account and possible investments. I would contact Diana Marrero-Pinto to discuss the Budgeting Bootcamp seminar and other training opportunities. I would visit the University of Phoenix Library for articles and book excerpts on budgeting and saving money. Process for Evaluating My Resources In order to evaluate the information that I would gather to resolve my problem, I would consider the source of that information. If I am interviewing professionals, I would ensure that they have a background in finance or experience working with people on how to manage their personal finances. If I am looking at Internet resources, I would be cautious nreliable websites that contain non-factual information. I believe, the Wall Street Journal website has reliable information since it is a nationally renowned newspaper in the United States. Another really reliable resource would be the University of Phoenix Library, because college officials ensure the information is reliable for students. The articles and books available on the University of Phoenix Library allow thousands of students to feel confident about the reliability and accuracy of the resources retrieved from the website. Ways to Use This Information to Resolve the Problem The process of problem-solving includes the ability to utilize self-knowledge to figure out solutions to a problem (Carter, Bishop, Kravits, 2007). I believe there are four stages in problem-solving: analyzing, synthesizing, applying, and evaluating. First, analyze the problem or issue by identifying the possible causes for why the problem occurred. Next, synthesize all the data that explains the problem and brainstorm possible solutions. According to Carter, Bishop, and Kravits (2007), â€Å"When you are brainstorming ideas, don’t get hooked on finding the one right answer. Questions may have many â€Å"’right answers’- or many answers that have degrees for usefulness† (para. 52). From these possible solutions create a plan of action, outlining important goals with timeframes for completion. Once the goals and timeframes are established, I will begin to apply the goals set forth in order to solve my problem. Later, I will evaluate the process it took to solve my problem, and decide if the process was dependable. This will help me to make better decisions in the future.

Batch Reactor As A Plant Engineering Essay

Batch Reactor As A Plant Engineering Essay What is a plant unit. All Equipment that make up a plant can be divided into 3 different categories or levels, the highest being the Plant as a whole, then the plant units and the lowest are the plant items. While the actual plant performs an overall production, the Plant unit refers to the main components of a Plant which perform a major production function of the Plant and without which the Plant can not continue its operations. A Plant unit is made up of items but it can be replaced as a whole (Anthony Kellyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦) In this Plant, the Batch Reactor receives raw materials from the raw material storage, processes them for a certain amount of time then transfers them to the centrifuge feed vessel. From the above diagram, it is obvious that the Batch Reactor is a major component of the plant and from its function it is seen that the reactor must process the raw material for progress to be made to the next stage of production. I am therefore concluding this as my explanation as to why the Batch reactor is a plant unit. Explain Your Reasons For Concluding That This Unit Is Critical For Production. Several Factors determine how critical a piece of equipment is to production. They include: Will the Equipment affect safety in the plant? Will the Equipment not working cause downtime in the plant? How easily can the Equipment be maintained? What is the cost of this maintenance? What is the current situation of the Equipment? (Paul Wheelhouse) Now each of the factors can be used to examine the Batch Reactor and after which an educated decision can be made. The Batch Reactor affects the safety in the plant because its function involves the heating of chemicals under pressure and its failure might cause the leakage of these chemicals or at the worst lead to an explosion in the Plant. If the Batch Reactor was to stop working, there would be prolonged downtime until it is fixed; this is due to the fact that the Reactor performs a major function in the Plant without which further production would come to a halt. The Batch Reactor is made up of a number of different items, some of which can be run-to-failure, but for the most an established schedule of maintenance must be made for. Without such a schedule, maintenance would be most difficult to carry out. The cost of maintaining the Batch Reactor may vary but if is not properly attended to; one fault might lead to another even bigger one so the cost of maintaining might increase. The items in the Batch Reactor have a life plan which is currently not being kept to; this means the Equipment requires monitoring to avoid random failure or prolonged breakdown and downtime. On the account of the above facts, it is my belief that the Batch Reactor needs to be labelled as critical. Extract Any User Requirements For This Designated Unit From The Plant Description. Are There Any Production Windows? What are User requirements? This simply refers to the specifications that are inbuilt in a piece of equipment so that it might be able to fulfil the end users needs according to those tasks which it is used to perform. In line with the plant description given on this particular Batch Reactor, a number of user requirements can be ascertained and these are listed below: To receive 18te of raw materials from the raw material storage. To remain sealed and heat its contents through a preset temperature / time profile by use of a temperature control system consisting of a thermocouple in a temperature pocket, a temperature controller and a control valve. That the control valve regulates the supply of low pressure steam. That its temperature alarm signal when the temperature exceeds 1250C. That all safety relief valves work in event of an increase of temperature past the safety limit of 1250C. That the bottom run off valve opens when the operation is complete and releases the contents from the Batch reactor to the centrifuge feed vessel by the discharge pump. That the operation lasts 10 hours only. What is a production window? This is a period during production in which maintenance procedures can be carried out without causing a halt in production. With emphasis on the Batch reactor it can be seen that there is a production window and this can be explained below. While the batch reactor makes 18te of product every 10 hours, the centrifuge processes this product at a rate of 1.5te an hour i.e. it would have completely used up the 18te of product in 12 hours. Since it takes 10 hours for the batch reactor to work, this would give a 2 hour production window in which it can be properly maintained. Also depending on the capacity of the centrifuge storage vessel, it is possible for the batch reactor to work overtime filling this feed vessel up and then be switched off and maintained while the centrifuge is operated using the previously stored produce in the centrifuge feed vessel. Extract Any Corporate Requirements for This Unit From The Plant Description. What are corporate requirements? These are the requirements which the upper management or Business sector of the company running plant desire from its industrial operations in order to make a suitable return on its investments (ROI). From the plant description the following corporate requirements can be made below: That its keeps to its scheduled annual shutdown period of 16 hours during week 40 each year. That all maintenance pertaining to the batch reactor abides by the permit to work system which controls all maintenance activities. That the batch reactor achieves a 25 year life and that the gearboxes achieve a 15 year life as well. That the batch reactor remains well-painted, clean and tidy at all times. Extract Any Legislative Requirements for This Unit From The Plant Description. What are legislative requirements? These are Plant requirements made by the Law, rules or regulations or the Country in which the Plant operates. They must be implemented in order for the plant to avoid sanctions or being shut down. In this particular plant description they include: That the Batch Reactor abides by the rules by the FDA and British pharmaceutical Society put in place for their license holders. All production and maintenance activities involving the Batch reactor comply with the Good Manufacturing practise (GMP). That the processes involving the Batch Reactor are as okayed by the quality standard ISO 9002. That the batch reactor conforms to the environmental standard ISO14000. That if used by the Pharmaceutical inspection team, the batch reactor must pass any risk-based inspections based on a DNV methodology that might be carried out. Comment On If Some of The tasks Designed For Shutdown Could be Done During Production Windows Or When The Plant Is Online. Could Any Of These Tasks Be Designated For Completion During Production Windows Be Completed Online? We have previous explained what production windows are and when a Plant is online refers to when the plant is carrying its usual operational procedures. From the work done previously in section 1.3, we now know that there is a definite 2 hour production window during which the batch reactor can be maintained while the centrifuge is working. In looking at the life plan for the batch reactor unit, there are a certain amount of tasks that could be done in 2 hours and should be moved from shut down to production window, these are: The replacement of the trim of the CV1 every 2 years. The pressure testing and inspection of the SV1 every 6 years. The visual check of the Agitator every 6 years. The SV2 pressure testing and inspection every 6 years. There is only one task put to be completed when there is a production window and it can be done while the Plant is online. This is the weekly visual check on the Agitator coupling, because if it is checked while online it might lead to the location of which wouldnt have being seen if the equipment was offline. Analyse The Recorded Jobs From The Computer Maintenance Management System (CMMS) For This Unit. Is There Any Evidence Which Confirms That The Life Plan Is Being Carried out? Is There Any Evidence To Say If The Life Plan Is Effective Or Not? What is a Life plan? All plant units or manufacturing stages in production are designed to have a certain life. To fulfil this, maintenance plans are put in place to achieve this expected equipment life and if possible, to exceed it. These maintenance plans are called Life plans. (Wheelhouse, 2008) On comparing the life plan of the batch reactor to the computer maintenance management system (CMMS) it can be seen that the life plan isnt being carried out. This is due to the factor that there is a remarkable difference between the standard time taken to maintain every single unit item in the reactor and the actual time the job was done in hours, meaning the maintenance done cannot be adequately planned for and could lead to excessive downtime. It can be seen that for this singular reason the life plan of the batch reactor is not capable of being effective. Use The Figures, Plant Description And The Data From The CMMS To Analyse The Unit Into Its Maintenance Causing Items. Using the figure 1 shown previously and the figure 2 shown directly above as well as the Life plan and the CMMS, the maintenance causing items can be broken down as done bel Batch Chemical Reactor CV1 Agitator Coupling Temperature controller Gearbox Motor bearing Oil seal Agitator Trim Agitator gear box Reactor Vessel Temperature sensor Pump Motor Pump bearing SV1 SV2 P1 V1 Vessel Jacket Figure 3: The Maintenance Causing Items in a Batch Chemical Reactor Develop your own life plan for these maintenance causing items using the task selection logic for Reliability Centred Maintenance. RCM WORK SHEET SYSTEM: CHEMICAL PLANT SUB-SYSTEM: BATCH CHEMICAL REACTOR SUB- SYSTEM FUNCTION FUNTIONAL FAILURE FAILURE MODE FAILURE EFFECT CRITICALITY RESPONSE TIME FREQUENCY CV1 Regulates supply of low Pressure steam Unable to supply Steam at all. Supplies Inadequate steam Faulty Trim Absence or insufficient Supply of steam High Replace trim 3 hrs 2 yearly (Production window) Agitator Motor Gearbox Transmit motion to the Agitator Fails to transmit motion To the Agitator. Broken seal Shortage of lubrication Damaged bearings Worn gear teeth Oil leakage Damage to gearbox Medium Monitor vibrations and check oil seal and condition. 2 hrs (vibration monitoring), 12 mins oil inspection Monthly Vibrations, Daily oil seal checks (Online) Agitator Coupling Connects Agitator motor gearbox to Agitator for motion transmission Doesnt transmit motion From gearbox to agitator. Transmits inadequate Motion. Slackness in fitting Doesnt give agitator The necessary Transmitted motion. Medium Tighten coupling as required. 6 mins Daily (online) Temperature Controller Controls the temperature making sure it doesnt exceed 1250 C Unable to read the correct temperature. Faulty temperature sensor . Increase or reduction of reactor temperature on wrong information. High Recalibrate temperature sensor. 2 hrs 2 year (Production window) SV1 Releases the pressure steam in the vessel during times of alert. Unable to release excess pressure steam Blockage at valve outlet. Crack in valve Pressure steam is not released properly or in time. High Inspect, pressure test and recondition if necessary. 3 hrs 6 yearly (Shutdown) SV2 Releases excess steam in the jacket in times of alert Unable to release excess steam Blockage at valve outlet. Crack in valve Pressure steam is not released properly or in time. High Inspect, pressure test and recondition if necessary 3 hrs Yearly (Production window) Agitator Shakes, stirs mixes the raw materials in the reactor. Unable to stir or mix Raw materials. Damaged blades Eroded surface Raw materials are not mixed properly. Medium Recoat or replace as necessary. 3 hrs Re-coat or replace as necessary.(Shutdown) Jacket Maintain its integrity and contain raw materials during processing. Leakage of materials during processing. Damaged or eroded Parts. Contents leak out causing contamination. High Pressure test and repair as necessary. 5 hrs Yearly (Shutdown) V1 Releases processed material to P1 pump Processed materials not released Leakage of material during release Blockage at valve outlet Crack in valve Contents not released properly. Contents leak out causing contamination. High Leak test and repair if necessary. 15 mins Daily test (Online) P1 Transfer processed materials from reactor to centrifuge feed vessel Leaks material Unable to pump materials at all. Pumps materials at Wrong rate. Replace seal if necessary. Replace pump if necessary. Contents leak. Contents not pumped properly High Condition monitoring Replace seal if necessary Replace pump if necessary. 1.5 hrs (Condition Monitoring) 4 mins (Leak test) Monthly condition Monitoring (Online), Daily leak checks (online) Figure 1.4: Life Plan using RCM logic. Compare and contrast between your Life plan with the one described previously, comment on any similarities and differences. There are a number of ways in which my Life plan differs from the one previously given but there are also ways in which both are similar. Some of them are as listed below: To begin, the first detail that can be noticed when comparing both life plans is that since I used the RCM selection logic, my life plan carries much more details as I included the functions, functional failures, failure modes, failure effect and criticality of each subsystem or item. This will be particularly useful in settling up priorities as the criticality of each subsystem is set at low, medium or high depending on the considerations of safety, performance and impact of the subsystem or item on the rest of the plant. I brainstormed and added more failure modes and their activities than had being previously discovered or had activities planned for in the previous life plan so as to further prepare maintenance personnel to be able to tackle these failures if and when they do occur. I changed the time frame for certain activities to take into consideration the new 2 hour production window that was discovered earlier. This will help reduce the amount tasks that are done during a shutdown and therefore cut down the downtime which the plant undergoes. I increased the amount of time to be used to accomplish most tasks due to the fact that in the previous life plan, insufficient time was allocated to these tasks so therefore they couldnt be planned or executed properly within the targets set for them. Now in terms of similarities, I observed that the preventive maintenance and condition monitoring carried out on the Batch Reactor had ensured breakdowns were kept to a minimum so bearing this in mind, I retained all the activities from the old life plan and continued using them for the various items. I also continued to carry out maintenance activities at the same frequency that was mapped out in the old life plan as I believe that the punctuality with which activities were carried out improved the reliability of the equipment. CHAPTER 2 Describe The Philosophy of Total Productive Maintenance. What is TPM? Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) refers to a management system for optimizing the productivity of manufacturing equipment through systematic equipment maintenance involving employees at all levels.   Under TPM, everyone is involved in keeping the equipment in good working order to minimize production losses from equipment repairs, assists, set-ups, and the like. (http://www.siliconfareast.com/tpm.htm). The goal of TPM is to increase production while at the same time boosting employee morale and job satisfaction. (Venkatesh. J) This is possible because there would be less downtime as TPM is carried out by the Operators on the items or machinery which they use as they, the maintainers and Designers work as a team towards the total elimination of equipment defects in the Plant (Paul Wheelhouse). History of TPM TPM is a Japanese idea that can be traced back to 1951 when preventive maintenance was introduced into Japan from the USA. Nippondenso, part of Toyota, was the first company in Japan to introduce plant wide preventive maintenance in 1960. In preventive maintenance operators produced goods using machines and the maintenance group was dedicated to the work of maintaining those machines. However with the high level of automation of Nippondenso, maintenance became a problem as so many more maintenance personnel were now required. So the management decided that the routine maintenance of equipment would now be carried out by the operators themselves. This is known as Autonomous maintenance, one of the features of TPM. The maintenance group then focussed only on maintenance works for upgrades. For pioneering TPM, Nippondenso became the 1st company to receive TPM certification (wikipedia). Why Use TPM? For TPM to be used in an Organisation, everyone from senior management to the operators on the floor must be carried along and made to understand why this particular system is being used. For this to happen effectively, the Motives, Objectives and benefits must be fully stated out and properly absorbed. The table below gives a generic illustration: Motives of TPM Adoption of life cycle approach for improving the overall performance of production equipment. Improving productivity by highly motivated workers which is achieved by job enlargement. The use of voluntary small group activities for identifying the cause of failure, possible plant and equipment modifications. Uniqueness of TPM The major difference between TPM and other concepts is that the operators are also made to involve in the maintenance process. The concept of I (Production operators) Operate, You (Maintenance department) fix is not followed. TPM Objectives Achieve Zero Defects, Zero Breakdown and Zero accidents in all functional areas of the organization. Involve people in all levels of organization. Form different teams to reduce defects and Self Maintenance. Direct benefits of TPM Increase productivity and OPE (Overall Plant Efficiency ) by 1.5 or 2 times. Rectify customer complaints. Reduce the manufacturing cost by 30%. Satisfy the customers needs by 100 % (Delivering the right quantity at the right time, in the required quality.) Reduce accidents. Follow pollution control measures. Indirect benefits of TPM Higher confidence level among the employees. Keep the work place clean, neat and attractive. Favourable change in the attitude of the operators. Achieve goals by working as team. Horizontal deployment of a new concept in all areas of the organization. Share knowledge and experience. The workers get a feeling of owning the machine. Figure 4 .TPM table Source: An Introduction to Total Productive Maintenance (Venkatesh. J) For TPM to start properly, the OEE (Overall Equipment Effectiveness) should be calculated and a loss analysis performed to give both a baseline for continuous upgrading and ascertain the improvement priorities. This will allow the operator/core maintenance team to prioritize and then tackle the 6 classic losses of: Breakdowns Set-ups and changeovers Running at reduced speeds Minor stops and idling Quality defects, scrap, yield and rework Starting up losses The above losses add to the direct costs. Implementation of TPM attacks these and other direct (visible) costs as well as indirect (hidden) costs and follows each step in the production and supply chain from Management to the human resources to the Machine to the process, then to suppliers and finally to the customers (Willmott and McCarthy). Components of TPM Figure 4: Pillars of TPM Source: An Introduction to Total Productive Maintenance (Venkatesh. J) As shown above, TPM is made up of 8 main aspects which when combined present the full TPM package. They are: The 5 S which are primarily the foundation of TPM and involve organising the workplace. These are sorting, systematising, sweeping, standardising and self-discipline. Autonomous maintenance which refers to the operators handling most or in cases all of the maintenance concerning the machines which they operate. Kobetsu Kaizen means small improvements or changes for the better of the organisation. Planned maintenance entails scheduled maintenance which is done to ensure trouble free machines and equipments producing defect free products for total customer satisfaction. Quality maintenance is aimed at providing customer satisfaction by providing the highest quality through defect free manufacturing. Training to give employees a multi skilled edge. Office TPM to ensure administrative efficiency as well. Safety, health and environmental awareness to ensure zero accidents, zero health damages and zero fires (Venkatesh. J). Describe a Case Study Where TPM has been successfully applied The case study which I wish to use is that of RHP Bearings. This RHP Bearings branch which is in Blackburn, manufactures cast iron bearing housings for a variety of uses from agricultural machinery to fairground rides, and is one of seven RHP manufacturing sites in Europe owned by Japanese group NSK, the worlds second largest bearings manufacturer. How TPM was carried out. NSK acquired RHP in 1990, when the Blackburn site was under the imminent threat of closure because of high costs and the subsequent lack of competitiveness. Employing a staff of 93, TPM was then introduced to the site in 1993 but it didnt see much success till 1996 due to the fact that the earlier efforts to drive TPM had been largely theoretical and the workforce faded to see its relevance to the everyday running of the plant. In 1996 a maintenance company was brought in to do a scoping study of the plant, conduct a workshop and support two pilot TPM projects. The Plant Manager and the TPM facilitator then began to implement measures to ensure TPM was made directly relevant to the jobs of the staff. Operators were sent off to climb over their machines and log problems through a detailed condition appraisal, to establish a foundation for future TPM improvements. TPM was piloted on two key machines, the PGM core making machine in the foundry and the Shiftnal sphering machine in the machine shop, using a detailed seven-step TPM implementation programme: Collection and calculation of Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) Data Assessing the six losses Criticality assessment and condition appraisal Risk assessment Refurbishment plan Asset care and best practice routines Regular review for problem solving TPM is applied to machines of all ages from new to 30 years old, ensuring that older machinery is brought up to modern specification and newer machinery is kept in as-new condition. The TPM was applied at the site by 9 different equipment teams focusing on specific machinery and involving 60% of the workforce. These teams included operators, maintainers, quality technicians and group leaders also drawing on help from personnel with specialist skills when necessary. Each Team developed a standard routine for their respective machines using: Autonomous Maintenance System (AMS) boards which show a schematic of the machine then tags with labels to show losses affecting availability, performance and quality. These labels are then used to generate TPM agendas for team meetings. TPM step notices which illustrate the machines progress in TPM seven step programme. Mainpac database which is used to gather machine performance details and calculate the OEE. Key performance indicators which the teams use to accesses their improvement and progress in areas of waste sand, Gas emissions, Kaizen, Customer returns, lost time incidents, injurious accidents, Audit and product conformance. Each team then has an activity board covering subjects such as milestone activities and previous days conformance result among others. To ensure TPM succeeded, Teams had to dedicate substantial time to carrying out laid down activities and held meetings as needed. Benefits of TPM Implementing TPM had both direct and indirect effect on the production system a combination of which generated major savings at RHP, Blackburn. Major Site-wide benefits were scored in the following areas: à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬400,000 running costs saved Unit cost reduced by 21% Scrap reduced by 8% Attracting increased capital investment currently at 15% of turnover and Customer returns reduced by 11% Increased customer satisfaction Improved safety record Environmental and quality awards Improvement in staff morale The two key machines (The Shiftnal sphering and the PGM core making machine) also had major total cost saving OEE improvements as well as other time saving and cost reduction achievements making the TPM well worth it (Willmott and McCarthy). Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) As Applied in a Section of a Plant What is RCM? RCM is a method for developing and selecting maintenance alternatives based on safety, operational and economical criteria. RCM employs a system perspective in its analyses of system functions, failures of functions and prevention of these functions (Jones, R.B). So RCM requires in-depth of the machinery, detailing all logic problems and their maintenance solutions and as such can be quite time consuming, for this reason it is usually used only on the critical equipment. The use of RCM methodology requires that 7 questions be answered: What are the functions of the Asset? What are the functional failures? What causes the functional failures? What happens when the failure occurs? How much does each failure matter? Can we predict or prevent failure and should we be doing so? How should we manage the failure if prediction or prevention is not an option?(Paul Wheelhouse) Now in order to answer the above questions, a System analysis process is used to begin RCM on any section of the plant. This System process will implement several steps, all of which define and characterize RCM and will methodically delineate the information required for the maintenance: Step 1. System selection and Information collection: Taking decisions as to what level of the plant at which to do the RCM and also choosing this system or section based on criticality i.e. based on function and impact on plant and environment. Step 2. System Boundary Definition: This involves creating an accurate list of what is or is not part of the section so an accurate list of components can identified and to establish what comes in and what leaves the System(IN and OUT interfaces). This is necessary to ensure the accuracy of the Systems analysis process. Step 3. System description and functional Block diagram: This is used to identify and document the essential details of a system that are needed to perform the remaining steps in a thorough and technical fashion. The five separate items are developed in this step: System Description Functional Block Diagram IN/OUT interfaces System Component list Equipment history Step 4. System Functions and Functional failures: involves classifying each OUT interface of the system into its functions and identifying the failures which might hinder these functions. Step 5. Failure Mode and Effect analysis (FMEA): involves analyzing each component failure to discover which have the potential to disruption their function and then detailing what exactly these effects could be. This is done using functional failure-equipment matrix. Step 6. Logic (Decision) Tree Analysis (LTA): the failure modes which pass through effects analysis will now go through this process. The purpose of this step is to further prioritize the emphasis and resources that should be devoted to each failure mode on the basis that all Authority (TVA). TVA is a power production plant wholly owed by the US government and equipment, functions and failures are not the same. The LTA identifies the failure modes in 3 aspects: Safety Downtime Economics (Finance) Step 7. Task selection: In this step, applicable maintenance tasks which are most effective to combat the detailed failure modes are listed, at the same time decisions on whether to run-to-failure or design out

Missile Defense System is Useless Against Terrorists Essay -- Septembe

A Missile Defense System is Useless Against Terrorists Donald Rumsfeld, was confirmed as Secretary of Defense with barely a whimper from the media. Rumsfeld's career in public service has been a lengthy one including serving as a former ambassador to NATO, a Congressman, and Secretary of Defense under the Ford administration from 1975 to 1977. But Rumsfeld's claim to fame is that he headed a 1998 Congressional panel that identified a growing threat of ballistic missile attack from rogue nations such as North Korea, Iraq, and Iran. Identifying the possibility of a real threat in the next five years, the report endorsed the development of a ballistic missile defense system to protect the U.S. from such attacks. America should want to protect itself from rogue nations bent on wreaking havoc. Who doesn't want to raise a shield against the mistakes and intentions of a dangerous world? But aside from the fact that most of the intelligence community believes that such a threat does not exist and will not for at least fifteen years, there is also one serious problem with a national missile defense system: It doesn't work. In the last two decades alone, the United States government has invested over $130 billion on Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" dream. With Bush at the helm, the U.S. appears poised to invest billions more. What has $130 billion and the valuable time of the military-industry complex given us? A system that is unable to reliably shoot a single, low-speed missile out of the sky. Nothing suggests that this system will work. The optimism exhibited by its advocates distorts the truth. The military has had to admit that the Patriot missile defense system, which was initially her... ...ses the treaty as "ancient history." At a time when Russia is becoming increasingly angry with the U.S.'s imperialist actions ‚ so much that they have threatened to withdraw from future arms control talks ‚ the last thing the U.S. should do is make an enemy out of a nation with one of the world's largest nuclear stockpiles. There are many serious threats to national security that demand our attention. In the post-Cold War era, the answers are complicated and require careful consideration. Unfortunately, Rumsfeld and the Bush administration have chosen a winning political sound byte which fails miserably in real life. We should focus on worldwide arms reduction. If Rumsfeld has his way, we may live in a far more dangerous world of anxious nuclear powers that engage in offensive-defensive arms races and keep their fingers on the nuclear button.

The Shield of Achilles in the Iliad :: Iliad essays

The Shield of Achilles in the Iliad      Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The shield of Achilles plays a major part in the Iliad. It portrays the story of the Achaeans and their fight against the Trojans in a microcosm of the larger story. Forged by the god, Hephaestus, who was a crippled smith, it depicts the two cities and the happenings within, as well as Agamemnon's kingly estate. To gain insight into the details and intricacies of the shield, one must look at the shield itself, the cities depicted within the shield, and the King's Estate and other scenes which are also depicted. These items will give even an amateur reader a fair understanding of the importance of Achilles' shield and the Iliad.      Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Hephaestus, the god of fire, is the smith whom forged Achilles' shield. He begins with twenty hot bellows and fires bronze, tin, gold, and silver in his kiln. He then proceeds to hammer the metals upon his anvil to create a massive shield for Achilles to wield. The shield itself is made of five layers of metal with a triple ply shield strap edging on the rim. On the shield are scenes showing the heavens and earth and sea, two noble cities, a king's estate, fallow fields, a thriving vineyard, a herd of longhorn cattle, and a dancing circle. Once Hephaestus completes the shield he makes a breastplate and helmet for Achilles. The armor he forges is indestructible and worthy of a god. Through Homer's description of the shield and how it is forged, the reader can begin to understand the importance and value of this device in a literary context.      Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The two cities depicted on the shield represent a city in Greece and Troy. One of the cities is filled with men dancing and singing and brides marching through the streets, while the other is circled by an army. This army has two plans which split their ranks: to share the riches which they have captured or plunder the city and capture more. Turmoil surrounds each city. In one a quarrel breaks out and is brought to judgement. Surrounding the other, two armies fight along the river banks killing men and dragging off the dead. Both cities are tainted with death, and both house love.

Prediction of Stock Market Indices

Prediction of Stock Market Indices-Using SAS Author—B. Siddhartha Reddy Abstract— The SAS © System has a powerful suite of tools for analyzing and forecasting data taken over a selected time period. The paper concentrates more on Stock Market (NSE-Nifty, India) & its prediction, by and large a risky venture. Knowledgeable investors base their predictions either on the basis of Fundamental Analysis, or Technical Analysis, or both. But most of the investors rely on the tips given by the experts for Stock Market Predictions.However there are many such models available such as Interrupted Time Series, Auto Regression (AR), Exponential Smoothening, Moving Average (MA), and Distributed Lags Analysis. The procedures FORECAST, ARIMA process will be illustrated. analysis, traditional time series analysis and machine learning methods. The analyzing and predicting of the indices is in one line-To reap returns while investing on the index derivatives, Index derivatives provide in vestors the exposure to price movements of entire indices through a single futures or options contract.Using index options, a very interesting kind of â€Å"portfolio insurance† can be obtained, whereby an investor gets paid only if the market index drops. If one does not want to bear index fluctuations in the coming weeks, then the index futures or index options can be used to reduce (or even eliminate) the consequent index exposure. This is far more convenient than distress selling of the underlying equity in the portfolio. Thus, such prediction of indices would help the investor to play safe in the dynamic volatile market arena. Analyzing What?Analyzing the indices as in NIFTY MIDCAP 50, one can determine various trends the market has seen on day-to-day basis-the process which includes determining the trends underneath the data series (at a stretch of 13 years from 19972010) brought down from various secondary sources. Moreover, these trends can be used to identify the pat terns in the series and thus laying the foundation for forecasting adopting a couple of iterative processes which will be explained in the following sections. Details of the data: Observations-3282, Type-Daily Tools used: SAS © and Eviews. II.DATA FEATURES AND EXAMPLE The first step in time series analysis, or any good statistical analysis for that matter, is to plot the data. However, unless the user knows what to look for in the plots this exercise is futile. Features of interest usually include: Trend – an overall long term upward or downward movement in the data. Do we handle this by differencing the data or fitting a low order polynomial in time? Seasonality – a component of the series repeats periodically, for example, retail sales have a tendency to be high around November and December and lower near the first of the year.Do we look at seasonal differences or put in seasonal â€Å"indicator variables†? Keywords— forecasting, prediction, stock mar ket prediction Time series analysis. I. INTRODUCTION Stock market is the market for securities where organized issuance and trading of Stocks takes place either through exchanges or over-the-counter in electronic or physical form. It plays an important role in channelizing capital from the investors to the business houses, which consequently leads to the availability of funds for business expansion.Determination of stock price considers that market is supreme and it discounts everything (economical, political and all related factors). It presumes that all the investors behave rationally and the value of the asset is estimated based on future expectations. Hence, with every new information, the future expectation of the market is liable to change and consequently the stock prices. As the new information is erratic in nature so it influences the price in a random way. The purpose of this trend analysis is to enable the organizations/individuals improve their knack of trading their ind ex options/futures in the available markets (NSE, BSE).The SAS technology helps the organization/individual to speed up the process of investing in this second’s market (changing over a period of seconds) and timely reducing the loss at all the levels in a trading process thus leveraging their portfolios. Why Analyze? Stock Market Investments are subjected to market risks and the returns are variable in nature because it is an uncertain existence. Hence Stock Market Prediction is not a guaranteed one. It is based on certain analyses linked to the Macro & Micro economic factors or variables such as demand & supply.There are certain other analyses available such as fundamental Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 1 Variability – is the variation additive or multiplicative (in which case we might want to analyze the logarithms of the data). Special events – was there a stri ke sometime during the period? Does the time period include the dotcom bubble and the recession in 2008? Is there an effect of the same or some other impingements?The features of the data determine which procedures are appropriate and identify those that are not appropriate. There are statistical checks available in the system for deciding, for example, the best approach for modeling the trend. As an example, Fig 1 shows the change in the Index values of NIFTY MIDCAP 50 in INDIA. While not exactly steady, we can see an overall increase/decrease in market with time. If we are thinking in terms of polynomials, it seems that at least a cubic polynomial might be needed to approximate the curvature in the historic data plot.The flexibility of high degree polynomials allows them to fit historic data well, but becomes a liability in forecasting in that such polynomials can, by their inherent flexibility, produce unreasonable increases or decreases as they are projected out into the future. Having checked with the seasonality and stationary test of the data, the logarithmic value of the data CLOSE (closing point of NIFTY) is taken and rechecked for the stationary test. If the data is a stationary, then the data is ready to model into a time series. The stationarity tests are done by using the Time Series Analysis in SAS, preferably The Fullers Test. Fig. Log Transformed Flows (Data Series: Obs – 3282 Type – Daily) The accuracy of the above forecast shown in fig 2 can be viewed in the fig 3 which shows the difference of the actual values and the predicted values of the market by considering the entire data of 13years at once and later on the same difference in case of the splitted graph. Fig 3 shows the statistics of differences in forecasting of the data: the graph (trend) with split and without split. Fig. 3 Differencing of Forecasted Data with Split & Without Split Thus, from Fig 3 it is evident that the data series has to be split as per the trends an d seasonality available.Having inspected the trends available in the above data series, it is found that there are various trends in the market index (closing) and had resulted in the 10 splits. The entire project has been verified while considering each and every split that shows some or the other trend and/or the impact of global impacts such as the Dotcom bubble and followed by the Recession in the year of 2008. The above impingements referring the dotcom bubble and recession are clearly observed globally and their impacts on the Indian Market are analyzed and assessed.It can be inferred that though Indian markets have shown a slight drift in its market during the above impacts, the overall effect of the recession on India is far negligible compared to the other developed countries (in reference to the BPO sector: India at its best) and we can say India along with other Pan-Asia countries have stood back from such wallops. III. RELATED WORK The Time Series Prediction analyzes his toric data and attempts to approximate future values of a time series as a linear combination of these historic data.In econometrics there are two basic types of time series forecasting: univariate (simple regression) and multivariate (multivariate regression). These types of regression models are the most common tools used in econometrics to predict time series. The way they are applied in practice is that firstly a set of factors that influence Fig. 2 Log Transformed Forecast Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 2 (or more specific is assumed that influence) the series under prediction is identified.These factors are the explanatory variables xi of the prediction model. Methodology: The methodology includes ? Collecting the Secondary data from the market sources such as National Stock Exchange (Nifty). ? Checking the seasonality in the data series (if any) and minimizing the same for an ac curate prediction. ? Claiming the data series to be precise – i. e. checking whether the data series obtained is stationary and raising the steps to make it a stationary series. Having checked with the stationarity, the data would be crisp and apparently ready to fetch a good forecast. Subjecting the resultant series into various models such as AR, MA etc. ? Forecasting the index and plotting the change in behavior of the market indices which is a real time analysis. This will help analysts/investors to make good and accurate investment decisions. Limitations: ? Access to the market’s real time data would be time variant and a slight change in the market may change the trend. ? Time series forecasting heavily depends upon the availability of the data. Long time series give the flexibility of verifying alternative models and choose the best. Exact modeling needs lots of experience and trend identification will be heavily depend upon this experience. ? Though the study g ives a trend analysis it might not work in a uniform way for all the investors, therefore the behavior of the investor also plays a vital role in the modeling. ? The resultant analysis may work only for a specific period and may always subject to change depend on other externalities which will impact the economy of the country. ? Limited time may or may not fetch good results in implementation of the analysis since share market cannot be cracked in the real time. Fig. Forecasting System The Model Building and The Forecasting Process IV. PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS The Performance analysis is been considered for the 10th split of the above data series since the entire paper concentrates on the Real-Time analysis of the NIFTY market, while comparing the predicted values with that of the Real-Time Index values and the same difference of Prediction is shown in the below Excel table. Fig 5 shows the graph (LCLOSE) for a time period of July 09 – Feb 10 and is not stationary. It can be det ermined by just viewing its trend and moreover the data is not moving in and out of the MEAN at equal intervals.However, the series clearly shows the trend with a non-stationary series. Such a trend does require a differencing while fitting into the model. Fig. 5 Log Transformed Close Values (LCLOSE) Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 3 The stationary series (ref fig 5) is best fitted into the AR Model (Auto Regressive Model) and is fitted for eight lags. Fig 5 shows AR (8, 1) since the parameter estimates show that: The probability is 0. 221 which says that the series (LCLOSE) is more significant at lag 8 and the coefficient of the standard error is almost zero (0. 0839) as obtained during the evaluation of the above model leading to the best fit than any other model. Fig 6 shows the statistics of fit of LCLOSE graph with RSquare as 0. 961 which says that the series is been fitted into th e model with the 96. 1% of confidence with the adjusted R-Square of 0. 958 (almost same) and with the mean absolute error being almost zero thus leading to the best fit. Fig. 6 Statistics of Fit Fig. 8 Predictions and Data OverlaidThe predictions of LCLOSE in fig 8 are listed for the next 6 days: 7. 8190 to 7. 8274 are the forecasted values of the NIFTY closing for the dates above 24th of Feb 2010 that is for the real time of the future. These values are checked with the real time closing values of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 on the following days. Fig 9 shows the predicted values and real time values of the same. Fig. 9 Predicted Vs Real Time Values The reason for this best fit of almost 96. 1% is due to the upward trend with the elevation of the data series which could make the prediction more accurate as it is a stationary.Fig. 7 96. 1% Confidence Interval Forecast (LCLOSE) From fig 9 it is evident that the predicted value of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 as 7. 8190 and can be arrived at 2487. 416 (anti-log of Predicted) which has just 4. 2167 points of difference with the real time i. e. 2483. 20 which is a secondary data downloaded from the NSE site. The real time values for the rest of the periods are written manually and the difference is checked accordingly. V. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ? The above forecasts of the time series models clearly show the behavior pattern of the market (NIFTY MIDCAP 50) in the near future.One may or may not find a difference in the values of predicted to that of the real time. Fig 7 is obtained on this day of 24th Mar 2010 (the updated data) and the values of the above forecasted graph are fed into the excel sheet to calculate the anti-log of the same in order to come up with the predicted values for the NIFTY closing. ? There is always a possibility of certain standard errors in case of the time series analysis which may be found due to the absence of the best fit models than which are fitted above. Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA.Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 4 ? Such and such above models namely AR do have some limitations which would result in an inaccurate prediction since these predicted values may sometimes have a huge difference with that of the real time values caused due to the external factors. These external factors can be: 1. 2. Policies implemented by the GOVERNMENT OF INDIA. Variation in the rates such as ? Interest Rates. ? Fluctuations of Indian Rupee with the impact of other currencies. ? Foreign Exchange Rates etc. Unforeseen issues such as : ?A sudden decline in the foreign markets. ? A variation in the chain of demand and supply. ? Sudden attack by the outlaws. 3. ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to take this opportunity to thank Prof. Prashobhan Palakkeel and Prof. Veena Bhat (faculties, IBS Bangalore) for their assistance in the concepts of Business Intelligence and statistical tools used in this research namely SAS 9. 1 & Eviews 6. 0; their ceaseless support has resulted in such a vulnerable & successful explore. This research paper would not been possible without the untiring support provided by my family and friends.The input and guidance provided by other faculties have been invaluable. I would like to extent my gratitude to all these people. REFERENCES [1] www. nse-india. com (NSE National Stock Exchange, India) as a secondary data source for Nifty daily. [2] http://www. statsoft. com/textbook/time-series-analysis/ [3] http:/webspace. qmul. ac. uk/dsgpollock/public_html/courses /tseries/1trends. pdf [4] www. nse-india. com/content/fo/fo_NIFTYMIDCAP50. htm [5] Brocklebank, J. C. and D. A. Dickey (2003) SAS for Forecasting Time Series, SAS Institute, Cary, N.C. [6] http://nseguide. com/press-releases/nse-index-weightsbased-on-nse-daily-bhav-copy/ [7] http://www. hkbu. edu. hk/~billhung/econ3600/application/a pp03/app03. html [8] http://webspace. qmul. ac. uk/dsgpollock/public_html/course s/tseries/8idntify. pdf [9] http://www. duke. edu/~rnau/411arim. htm â€Å"Model Selection is seldom Precise in Time Series modeling, because it’s An Art more Than a Science† Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 5

Organizational Changes within the National Health Service Essay

1. Discuss and debate the organizational changes within the National Health Service and examine how these have influenced care delivery. At the start of the NHS, a mediation model of management subsisted where the role of the manager facilitated health care professionals to care for the patient. Medical staffs were extremely influential and controlling in determining the shape of the service, at the same time as managers were imprudent and focused on managing internal organizational issues (Harrison et al. 1992). After the 1979 general election, there was originally little change to the National Health Service (Klein 1983). Though, poor economic growth, together with growing public expenditure, slowly brought about changes. Influenced by the ‘New Right’ ideologies, a more interventionist, practical, style of management in the health service emerged. This efficiently changed the role of managers from one of imprudent scapegoats for existing problems, to agents of the government (Flynn 1992). Managers became the means by which government control over NHS spending was increased (Harrison and Pollitt 1994). The impulsion for this change arose from the 1983 Griffiths report (NHS Executive 1983), an assessment by the government health advisor, Sir Roy Griffiths. Within this report, four specific problem areas were recognized: the limited management influence over the clinical professions; a managerial stress on reactivity to problems; the significance placed on managing the status quo; and a culture of producer, not consumer, orientation (Harrison et al. 1992). The power of the Griffiths Report (op. cit.) was to challenge and limit medicine’s sovereignty in the health service, and over health care resources. certainly, nurses were simply referred to twice throughout the document. Through its attention on organizational dynamics and not structure, the Griffiths Report proposed main change to the health service. General Managers were initiated at all levels of the NHS. In spite of Griffiths’ original intention that it was simply cultural adjustment that was required, there were instantaneous and considerable structural and organizational changes in the health service (Robinson et al. 1989). Post-Griffiths there were escalating demands for value for money in the health service (DoH 1989). Efforts to extend managerial control over professional autonomy and behavior so continued throughout this intense period of change, and terminated with the NHS and Community Care Act (DoH 1990). From the re-organizations that taken place during this period, the NHS was rationalized to conform more intimately to the model of free enterprise in the private sector. This reformation was shaped by the belief that greater competence could be stimulated through the formation of an internal and competitive market. The belief that the health service was a distinguishing organization was disputed. The principles of economic rationality linked with business organizations were applied extensive to the operation of health service. The services requisite were determined, negotiated, and agreed by purchasers and providers through a funding and constricting mechanism. In this, trust hospitals and Directly Managed Units supplied health care provision for District and General Practitioner fund holders. There has since been a further shift in the purchaser base from health authorities to local commissioning through primary care groups and, more lately, through the Shifting the Balance of Power: The Next Steps policy document (DoH 2001b), to Primary Care Trusts. Through such recognized relationships, purchasers have turn out to be commissioners of services and the idea of the internal market has become the managed market that recognizes the more long-term planning of services that is required. Rhetoric of organization and health improvement underpins service agreements now made. The NHS is not simply a technical institution for the delivery of care, but as well a political institution where the practice of health care and the roles of health care practitioners imitate the authority base within society. The hospital organizational structure is an influential determinant of social identity, and thus affects health care roles and responsibilities. Though, through the health care reforms the medical staff and, to a lesser degree the managers, appeared to be defense from the introduction of general management into the health service. This has resulted in health service delivery remaining stoutly located within a medical model, and medical domination unchallenged (Mechanic 1991). It is the less authoritative occupational groups, including nursing, that have felt the major impact of such reforms. The NHS organizational changes aimed to convey leadership, value for money, and professional responsibility to managers at all level of the health service. These alterations were intended to reverse the organizational inertia that was limiting growth and efficiency in the system. Though originally aiming a positive impact on the service, these radical ideologies led to tension at the manager-health care professional boundary (Owens and Glennerster 1990). The prologue of the internal market in the NHS meant to present a more neutral and competent way of allocating resources, through rationalization and depersonalization. The new era of managerially claimed to be a changing force opposing customary health professional power (Newman and Clarke 1994), and persuasive professionals to offer to organizational objectives (Macara 1996). The contradictory models of health care held by managers and health care workers improved ambiguity over areas of responsibility and decision making, somewhat than clarity as anticipated (Owens and Glennerster 1990). The contending ideologies and tribalism between the health care groups were more unequivocally revealed. The introduction of markets to health care exposed a dichotomy for health care professionals. Medical and nursing staffs were requisite to report to better managerial officials, yet reveal professional commitment to a collegial peer group. This was challenging, mainly for medical staff that understood medical influence and the independence of medical practice, but did not recognize managerial ability. In many of the commentaries addressing this, the majority pragmatic resolution to addressing this situation was to distinguish that professional independence exists but together with, and limited, by managerial and decision-making control. The Griffiths Report (NHS Management Executive 1983) considered the doctor as the natural manager and endeavored to engage medicine with the general management culture through the resource management inventiveness. This requisite medicine to clinch the managerial values of collaboration, team work and collective attainment through the configuration of clinical management teams: the clinical directorate. On the contrary such working attitudes were in direct contrast to medicine’s principles of maximizing rather than optimizing, and of autonomy not interdependence. It is fascinating that even in today’s health care environment; there have been sustained observations that medical staffs do not supervise resources or clinical staff in an idealistic way. in spite of this, there has been little effort to undertake a methodical and broad review of the organization of medical work. This is in direct distinction to the experience of nurses, whose working practices and standards persist to be critiqued by all. Early on attempts made by managers to bound medical authority led to doctors adopting countervailing practices so as to remain independent and avoid organizational authority. Such practices, taken to keep their clinical independence, included unrestricted behaviors in admitting patients or deciding on explicit patient treatments (Harrison and Bruscini 1995). These behaviors rendered it hard for managers to intrude on medical practice, and therefore restricted the impact of the health care reforms. Immediately post-Griffiths there was some proof that introduction of general managers had, to a small extent, influenced medical practices. Green and Armstrong (1993) undertook a study on bed management in nine London hospitals. In this study, it was established how the work of managerial bed managers was capable to influence throughput of patients, admission and operating lists, thereby ultimately affecting the work of medicine. however, attempts made by managers to organize medicine were self-limiting. Health care managers were not a colossal, ideologically homogeneous group and lacked a strong consistent power base (Harrison and Pollitt 1994). Managers did not fulfill their remit of exigent the medical position in the health service and evade the responsibility for implementing repulsive and difficult decisions (Harrison and Pollitt op. cit.). The management capability of medicine persists to be challenged by government initiatives including the overture of clinical governance (DoH 1997). In this, the Chief Executives of trusts are held responsible for the quality of clinical care delivered by the whole workforce. An optimistic impact of this transform may be to provide opportunity for an incorporated organization with all team members, representing an interdependent admiration of health care (Marnoch and Ross 1998). on the other hand, it might be viewed as simply a structural change to increase the recognized ability of the Chief Executive over the traditional authority of medical staff: a further effort to make in-roads into the medical power base. Current years have demonstrated sustained commitment from the government towards modernizing health care (DoH 2000b). This has integrated challenging conventional working patterns and clinical roles across clinical specialties and disciplines. certainly medicine has received improved public and government scrutiny over current years. This has resulted in a shift of approach from within and outside the medical profession. The accomplishment of challenging the agenda for change in health care will be part-determined by medicine’s capability to further flex its own boundaries, and respond to the developing proficiency of others. 2. Identify and critically explore the changing role of the nurse, within the multi disciplinary team, examining legal, ethical and professional implications. The impact on nurses of the post-Griffiths health service configuration has not been so inconsequential. Empirical work has demonstrated that execution of the Griffiths recommendations led to the removal of the nursing management structure. This efficiently limited senior nurses to simply operational roles (Keen and Malby 1992). The implementation of the clinical directorate structure, with consultants having managerial accountability over nursing, further reduced nursing’s capability to effect change. Prior to 1984, budgetary control for nursing place with the profession. The 1984 reorganization distant nursing from nursing’s own control and placed it decisively under the new general managers’ (Robinson and Strong 1987, p. 5). As the notions of cost inhibition and erudite consumers were promoted, audit and accounting practices assumed a significant position in the health service. It was nurses who, encompassing a considerable percentage of the total workforce and linked staffing budget, found themselves targets for public and government analysis. Nursing maintained some strategic management functions within the new management structures, but these tasks were mostly limited to areas within the professional nursing domain. Nurses have been seen as pricey and potentially upsetting factors of production: channels through which costs can be lessened and administration functions can be absorbed (Ackroyd 1996). Caught in the crossfire of managerial changes that were originally targeted at medicine, nursing has been placed subordinate to management (Robinson and Strong 1987). In spite of debates on the impact of health care changes, there is consent on one issue. The structural and organizational changes in the NHS since 1991 have re-fashioned unit management teams and unit management responsibilities. This has resulted in the improved involvement of these teams in the stipulation of the service. It has required a diverse way of thinking about health care and new relationships between clinicians and managers to be developed (Owens and Glennerster 1990). The nineties are set to become a vital period in changing the ways in which health care is delivered, not just in terms of the potential re-demarcation of occupational boundaries between health care occupations, but as well in terms of the broader political, economic and organizational changes presently taking place in the NHS. It is asserted that traditional demarcations between doctors and nurses, seen as based on ever more unsustainable distinctions between ‘cure’ and ‘care’, are becoming blurred and that the new nursing causes a threat to the supremacy of the medical profession within health care (Beardshaw and Robinson 1990). though, there is an element of wishful thinking about this and, indeed, Beardshaw and Robinson (1990) rage their optimism with an identification of the continued reality of medical dominance. They see the threat to medical supremacy as one of the most problematical aspects of the new nursing, largely as claims to a unique therapeutic role for nursing must essentially involve a reassessment of patient care relative to cure. In Beardshaw and Robinson’s view, the degree to which doctors will be willing to exchange their conventional ‘handmaidens’ for true clinical partners, or even substitutes, is one of the most significant questions pos ed by the new nursing. In the wake of the Cumberlege Report on Community Nursing (DHSS 1986) and World Health Organization directions concerning precautionary health care, there appeared the very real view of the substitution of nurses for doctors in definite clinical areas-particularly primary care in the community, through nurses creating a central role in health encouragement, screening, counseling and routine treatment work in some GP practices (Beardshaw and Robinson 1990). Though, a current evaluation of the impact of present reforms in the NHS on the role of the nurse in primary care is more distrustful concerning the future shape of the community nursing role. If the way to determine the extent of nurses’ challenge to medicine is in terms of the conflict it provokes, then there positively is proof of medical resistance to recent developments in nursing. Doctors’ reaction to the Cumberlege Report on neighborhood nursing (DHSS 1986), which suggested the appointment of nurse practitioners, revealed that there were doctors who strongly resisted the initiative of nurses acting autonomously (Delamothe 1988). On the other hand, the General Medical Services Committee and the Royal College of Nursing agreed that ‘decisions concerning appropriate treatment are in practice not always made by the patient’s general practitioner’ and recognized that nurses working in the community are effectively prescribes of treatment (British Medical Journal 1988:226). Discussions relating to the proper arrangements desired to hold the prescription of drugs by nurses are taking place, on the grounds that nurse prescribing raises issues linking to the legal and professional status of both the nursing and the medical professions (British Medical Journal 1988:226). This suggests that renegotiations relating to the spheres of competence of doctors and nurses are on the agenda. None the less, the General Medical Council (1992) Guidelines remain indistinct on nurse prescribing and other forms of ‘delegation’ of tasks under medical privilege to nurses, stating that it has no desire to hold back delegation, but warning that doctors must be satisfied concerning the competence of the person to whom they are delegated, and insisting that doctors should retain eventual responsibility for the patients, as improper delegation renders a doctor liable to disciplinary proceedings. Renegotiations around the division of responsibilities between doctors and nurses are taking place very carefully and to a large extent on a rather extemporized basis, given the volume of letters requesting advice and clarification received from GPs by the General Medical Council. The focus in much of the nursing literature seems to be on the challenge of the ‘new’ nursing to the ‘old’ nursing posed by nursing reform, somewhat than on the challenge to medicine. One doctor (Mitchell 1984) has complained in the pages of the British Medical Journal that doctors have not been told what the nursing process is about. Paradoxically, the nursing process is in fact derived from the work of an American doctor, Lawrence Weed, who pioneered the ‘problem-oriented record’ for hospitals in 1969. This changed the way in which patient information was collected and stored by instituting one single record to which all health professionals given. Though the nursing process, which was part of this innovation, crossed the Atlantic to Britain, the problem-oriented record did not. Mitchell (1984) has argued that the medical profession must oppose the nursing process and give it a rough ride on the grounds that medical knowledge should precede nursing plans to remedy the deficiencies of living activities which are, he insists, consequential upon the cause and clinical course of disease. He also accuses nurses of enabling a pernicious dichotomy between ‘cure’ and ‘care’, relegating the doctor to disease and inspiring the nurse to the holistic care of the individual, and suspects that the nursing process is less a system of rationalizing the delivery of care than a means of elevating nurses’ status and securing autonomy from medical supremacy.

Analysis Essay

I. Frethorne, Richard. On Indentured Servitude. Edited by Howard Zinn, Anthony Arnove. New York, NY: Seven Stories Press, 2009 II. Frethorne talks about his miserable experience to be an indentured server. He writes the letter to his parents and describes the horrendous conditions he is in. Frethorne states some vital facts. He also writes that people who suffer as indentured servants are willing to lose either leg or arm but to move back to England. According to Frethrone he is working on plantation somewhere in Virginia that is located about ten miles away from Jamestown. He is begging his parents to either send him some money for good living or help him to return to England. Richard Frethorne emphasizes that his life depends on his parents and he hopes that his family is doing fine. III. Richard Frethorne’s letter provides and illuminating picture of the hardships of colonization in the early seventeenth century, especially for the class of indentured servants. Combating isolation, disease, homesickness, hunger and discomfort, Frethorne and his fellow settlers struggled to make a success of their fledgling community. Life in early Virginia was particularly challenging because of the shortage of supplies, the prevalence of disease, and tense relations with the Native Americans. The source is relevant to our course because it describes the social issue that was discussed in our class. Indentured servitude was cheaper for the rulers of British Empire before the moment when indentured servants became capable of surviving the seven-year period and acquiring the land that was promised to them. After that moment slavery of African Americans was demanded. IV. This source influences the interpretation of the historical narrative by providing extra information about the real situation in the colonies. People in England thought that indentured servitude was not a dangerous thing and was an easy way of claiming some land in America. However, Frethorn’s letter to his parents proves the opposite of what was thought. By provided examples of harsh conditions he states that all the servants who already arrived to America had desire to move back to England. He has no money to live. He is starving and afraid of the Indians invading, he begs his parents to hurry up and help his soon for his life depends on it. Of course there is possibility of poor Frethorne to exaggerate because the letter was addressed to his parents; therefore, he has a good discretion of what it might have been like to live  in New England at the time he was there in 1623. Indentured Servitude was a form of slavery but with a better name instead of calling things wit h its names.